Authors : Drs. Wayne Simpson & Douglas J. Gotham (for CAC Manitoba).
The Manitoba Hydro report on Needs for and Alternatives to Business Case (NFAT, August, 2013) provides load forecasts to 2032 that constitute the starting point for their assessment of alternative development plans. Elenchus Research Associates have now provided a review of Manitoba Hydro’s load forecast for the Public Utilities Board (Elenchus, January, 2014) that describes the forecasting process in detail and provides an assessment of its accuracy and reliability. In summary, Elenchus (iv) finds that the NFAT load forecast is reasonable but deficient in terms of the alternative economic and population scenarios considered and the methodology used to assess its reliability. This report attempts to avoid duplication with the work done by Elenchus to provide additional discussion of the accuracy and reliability of Hydro’s load forecasts in the NFAT. It is meant to be read as a companion to the Elenchus report. In particular, this is not an attempt to repeat the detailed description of Hydro’s load forecast methodology already provided by Elenchus.
This report is structured in two parts. Part 1 provides a general overview of load forecasting techniques and the significance of forecast accuracy for resource planning purposes. Part 2 looks specifically at Manitoba Hydro’s load forecasting in the NFAT.